CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 11/08 - 06Z TUE 12/08 2003
ISSUED: 10/08 20:08Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across SW...S...E...N Europe.

SYNOPSIS

High-amplitude upper flow pattern is expected to weaken somewhat over the FCST period as short-wave troughs move along the periphery of the central European ridge. However ... synoptically quiescent conditions will prevail across southern and W-central Europe. Cold front ahead of E Atlantic upper trough will slowly progress eastwards ... and reach Scandinavia ... NW BeNeLux and NW France towards the end of the period.

DISCUSSION

...S Scandinavia...BeNeLux...W Germany...
Plume of rather hot, dry and weakly unstable air is present ahead of the cold front. As weak DCVA-related lift overspreads NW-central Europe ... TSTMS will likely initiate along and ahead of the cold front. Given weak capping ... TSTMS may become quite numerous. Deep shear should be only be on the order of 20 knots ... but given inverted-V type profiles ... threat of downbursts continues. Though 20 knots deep-layer shear will be marginal ... along with strong evaporative downdraft cooling/cold-pool formation ... a short-lived/small bow echo or two could occur. Allover severe threat is too low though for a categorical risk.

...S and SW Europe...
Otherwise ... Scattered diurnally driven high-based pulse storms will likely form again ... and pose some threat of an isolated/brief severe wind event ... but allover threat remains too low for a categorical risk.

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